Arjun Ashok

A flexible model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, simplifying the training of attentional copulas, with state-of-the-art accuracy on diverse forecasting tasks, while supporting interpolation and learning from irregular data.

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series.

A foundation model for probabilistic time series forecasting with strong zero-shot and few-shot capabilities

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

We propose two distillation-based objectives for class incremental learning that leverage the structure of the feature space to maintain accuracy on previous classes, as well as enable learning the new classes

In class-incremental learning, the model is expected to learn new classes continually while maintaining knowledge on previous classes. The challenge here lies in preserving the model's ability to effectively represent prior classes in the feature space, while adapting it to represent incoming new classes. We propose two distillation-based objectives for class incremental learning that leverage the structure of the feature space to maintain accuracy on previous classes, as well as enable learning the new classes. In our first objective, termed cross-space clustering (CSC), we propose to use the feature space structure of the previous model to characterize directions of optimization that maximally preserve the class - directions that all instances of a specific class should collectively optimize towards, and those that they should collectively optimize away from. Apart from minimizing forgetting, this indirectly encourages the model to cluster all instances of a class in the current feature space, and gives rise to a sense of herd-immunity, allowing all samples of a class to jointly combat the model from forgetting the class. Our second objective termed controlled transfer (CT) tackles incremental learning from an understudied perspective of inter-class transfer. CT explicitly approximates and conditions the current model on the semantic similarities between incrementally arriving classes and prior classes. This allows the model to learn classes in such a way that it maximizes positive forward transfer from similar prior classes, thus increasing plasticity, and minimizes negative backward transfer on dissimilar prior classes, whereby strengthening stability. We perform extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets, adding our method (CSCCT) on top of three prominent class-incremental learning methods. We observe consistent performance improvement on a variety of experimental settings.

We develop an extremely simple, post hoc, on-the-fly, and plug-and-play activation shaping method for out-of-distribution detection.

The separation between training and deployment of machine learning models implies that not all scenarios encountered in deployment can be anticipated during training, and therefore relying solely on advancements in training has its limits. Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is an important area that stress-tests a model's ability to handle unseen situations: Do models know when they don't know? Existing OOD detection methods either incur extra training steps, additional data or make nontrivial modifications to the trained network. In contrast, in this work, we propose an extremely simple, post-hoc, on-the-fly activation shaping method, ASH, where a large portion (e.g. 90%) of a sample's activation at a late layer is removed, and the rest (e.g. 10%) simplified or lightly adjusted. The shaping is applied at inference time, and does not require any statistics calculated from training data. Experiments show that such a simple treatment enhances in-distribution and out-of-distribution sample distinction so as to allow state-of-the-art OOD detection on ImageNet, and does not noticeably deteriorate the in-distribution accuracy. We release alongside the paper two calls for explanation and validation, believing the collective power to further validate and understand the discovery.

We introduce a benchmark of 1,600+ diverse language tasks and their expert-written instructions, and rigorously benchmark cross-task/unseen-task generalization of models. We introduce Tk-Instruct, an encoder-decoder Transformer that is trained to follow a variety of in-context instructions (plain language task definitions or k-shot examples) which outperforms existing larger models on our benchmark.

How well can NLP models generalize to a variety of unseen tasks when provided with task instructions? To address this question, we first introduce Super-NaturalInstructions, a benchmark of 1,616 diverse NLP tasks and their expert-written instructions. Our collection covers 76 distinct task types, including but not limited to classification, extraction, infilling, sequence tagging, text rewriting, and text composition. This large and diverse collection of tasks enables rigorous benchmarking of cross-task generalization under instructions -- training models to follow instructions on a subset of tasks and evaluating them on the remaining unseen ones. Furthermore, we build Tk-Instruct, a transformer model trained to follow a variety of in-context instructions (plain language task definitions or k-shot examples). Our experiments show that Tk-Instruct outperforms existing instruction-following models such as InstructGPT by over 9% on our benchmark despite being an order of magnitude smaller. We further analyze generalization as a function of various scaling parameters, such as the number of observed tasks, the number of instances per task, and model sizes. We hope our dataset and model facilitate future progress towards more general-purpose NLP models.

We analyse existing self-supervised multivariate time series learning algorithms on their ability to learn representations of weather features, evaluating them on weather-driven downstream applications

Self-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms are gaining traction in various domains as a general paradigm of learning representations from data, largely outperforming supervised learning algorithms in tasks where labelled data is limited and costly to collect. In this work, we analyse existing self-supervised multivariate time series learning algorithms on their ability to learn representations of weather features, evaluating them on weather-driven downstream applications involving regression, classification and forecasting tasks. We experiment with a two-step protocol. In the first step, we employ an SSL algorithm and learn generic weather representations from multivariate weather data. Then, in the next step, we use these representations and train simple linear models for multiple downstream tasks. Through our experiments on air quality prediction tasks, we highlight the benefits of self-supervised weather representations. The benefits include improved performance across multiple tasks, the ability to generalize with limited in-task data, and a reduction in training time and carbon emissions. We highlight several areas of future work and the potential impact that such algorithms can have on real-world problems. We expect such a direction to be relevant in multiple weather-driven applications supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Designed two regularizers that enforce a network to preserve expert features that are reusable across domains, enabling them to extrapolate to unseen distributions better

Out-of-distribution (O.O.D.) generalization remains to be a key challenge for real-world machine learning systems. We describe a method for O.O.D. generalization that, through training, encourages models to only preserve features in the network that are well reused across multiple training domains. Our method combines two complementary neuron-level regularizers with a probabilistic differentiable binary mask over the network, to extract a modular sub-network that achieves better O.O.D. performance than the original network. Preliminary evaluation on two benchmark datasets corroborates the promise of our method.

In contrast to prior literature, we show that the effectiveness of self-supervision in improving few-shot learning highly depends on the architecture and image size used, and that using self-supervised to train models decreases cross-domain few-shot performance